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  • gertvanlagen

BTC [6h] - Shortterm throwback + longterm uphill run expected

Updated: Sep 15, 2021

Shortterm observations

On the shortterm charts an expanding Elliott triangle is observed.

It's a triangle with two rising trendlines, indicating a shortterm throwback -> first form.


Longterm observations

On the longterm chart the following is observed:

  • Bump-and-run pattern

  • Price currently at last heavy resistance (0.618) which needs to be broken with big volume

  • Bump phase qualifies as a cup without handle (yet)


Compared to the textbook bump-and run reversal pattern in the figure above, price currently trades after the throwback to the trend line (yellow).

Given the shortterm bearish signals and the fact that price is trading at major resistance and the to be expected longterm bullish uphill run, I expect price to retest the trend line once more, like in the figure below, before starting the uphill run.

$42.5k at the 0.382 retracement could very well be hit confluent with a retest of the yellow trend line.

Of course the uphill run could start directly, for which significant volume increase will be needed.

Update 29/08

The pink rising wedge is added to the analysis with a target at $42,500.

This target is confluent with:

+ the 0.618 retracement level of the 30-50k move up

+ the 0.382 retracement of 30k-ATH

+ the yellow bump-and-run trendline

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