- gertvanlagen
$BTC, $ALGO, $ASR, $DOT, $XRP- 7th draw October challenge
Updated: Oct 7, 2021
The higher a target, the more likely a lower target will be the cycle top. Highest targets are deemed possible when the total market capitalization grows to 10T EOY '21.
--> link to challenge dashboard
$BTC - Bitcoin
This coin has my greatest attention as it leads the dance in crypto space.
Targets: 127k and 210k
Market cycle
Currently price is at the start of an uphill run. Compare the $BTC chart with generic market cycle sentiment below. The bear-trap prior to the Blow-off phase is in full play and soon renewed optimism will flood your timeline after which FOMO and Euphoria will kick in. How to know where the top of the cycle is? Read on.
How to see if the top of the bull cycle is in? Use on-chain and market cycle indicators:
--> see also my tweets below covering these indicators.
RHODL ratio: this indicator always hit the red range during previous bull cycle tops; hitting the green range always has yielded a lower high.
Advanced NVT Signal: this signal always crossed the solid (not dashed!) red line at a cycle peak.
MVRV Z-Score: this score always was within the red band at the bull cycle peak. During the 2013 bull market however it gave a false signal, for which the upper two indicators are considered more reliable.
Puell Multiple: this score always was within the red band at the bull cycle peak. During the 2013 bull market however it gave a false signal, for which the upper two indicators are considered more reliable.
--> strongest signal is when multiple of these signals flash red.
Stock-to-Flow Model
One fresh insight I like to share in this post is that the model variance of the stock-to-flow is recovering from 'oversold', just like before the bull cycle peaks in December 2013 and 2017. At previous bull cycle tops this variance was far into 'overbought'. 'oversold' indicates here that price is trading well beneath the S2F predicted value (brown line) and 'overbought' the opposite.
Previous blog posts
I have several elaborate posts on $BTC, which can be found here, covering a vast range of different analyses on Bitcoin.
Some relevant tweets about $BTC --> see also
Elliottwaves on shortterm and longterm
Bump-and-run pattern
On-chain indicators
Market cycle charts
Wyckoff
RSI trends
$Algo - Algorand
The chart of Algorand looks super bullish, so I really think it will crush the upper trend line of the rising channel soon.
Targets:
$8.4: 1.272 extension of '20 bear market;
$14: 1.414 extension of '20 bear market;
$28: 1.618 extension of '20 bear market.
($105:) 2 extension of '20 bear market. (unlikely!)
Key resistance to break: $3.3 (upper yellow trend line)
Key support to hold: $0.9-1.5 (lower yellow trend line)
Tip: in the tradingview chart you can press the play button, to see how price evolved after this analysis was made.
$ASR - AS Roma Fan Token
This token has a very low market cap and has therefore a lot of room to grow. The market value of AS roma is 400 million, so let's keep things into perspective. Currently a symmetrical triangle is in play. Be careful at a break to the downside of the lower trend line.
The figure below shows what could be a good entry strategy (buy on retest upper trend line after breakout; use a stop loss shortly under lower trend line).
Targets:
~$25: 1.272 extension of ATH to ATL (MC = ~50M);
~$50: 1.414 extension of ATH to ATL (MC = ~105M);
~$75: 1.618 extension of ATH to ATL (MC = ~160M);
~$125 2 extension of ATH to ATL (MC = ~260M).
Key resistance to break: $10-16 (upper yellow trend line)
Key support to hold: lower yellow trend line
Tip: in the tradingview chart you can press the play button, to see how price evolved after this analysis was made.
$DOT - Polkadot
Elliott wave analysis.
Targets:
$138: 1.618 extension of III-IV countertrend wave AND top of green channel;
$250: 2 extension of III-IV countertrend wave;
$400: 2.272 AND extension of trend line(dashed, blue) through I and III;
Live chart:
Tip: in the tradingview chart you can press the play button, to see how price evolved after this analysis was made.
$XRP - Ripple
Elliott wave analysis.
Targets are extension levels of the 2018-2020 bear market. NOTE: so the sketched IV-V wave could also have these targets as cycle top, i.e. I'm not claiming it will reach $30:
$8.6: 1.272 extension of III-IV countertrend wave AND top of green channel;
$15: 1.414 extension of III-IV countertrend wave;
$30: 1.618 AND extension of trend line(dashed, blue) through I and III;
Pay attention to the VWAP's function in bear/bull markets (resistance/support). Currently price ranges above it
Chart:
Tip: in the tradingview chart you can press the play button, to see how price evolved after this analysis was made.
